Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.015805 0.017900 0.020171 0.022819 0.025822 0.029122 0.033027
2025-07-20 0.012656 0.015571 0.019005 0.023354 0.028720 0.035134 0.043397
2025-07-27 0.011018 0.014346 0.018496 0.024058 0.031334 0.040547 0.053134
2025-08-03 0.009541 0.013010 0.017539 0.023899 0.032623 0.044206 0.060815
2025-08-10 0.008465 0.012011 0.016832 0.023879 0.033954 0.047892 0.068738
2025-08-17 0.007480 0.010997 0.015951 0.023458 0.034595 0.050579 0.075403
2025-08-24 0.006868 0.010432 0.015617 0.023738 0.036201 0.054706 0.084463
2025-08-31 0.006235 0.009758 0.015041 0.023570 0.037075 0.057764 0.092122
2025-09-07 0.005863 0.009438 0.014951 0.024113 0.039055 0.062634 0.102999
2025-09-14 0.005249 0.008673 0.014093 0.023342 0.038846 0.063991 0.108273
2025-09-21 0.004811 0.008148 0.013564 0.023044 0.039355 0.066509 0.115643
2025-09-28 0.004339 0.007523 0.012813 0.022296 0.039021 0.067562 0.120545
2025-10-05 0.004183 0.007430 0.012955 0.023110 0.041480 0.073645 0.134958
2025-10-12 0.003995 0.007262 0.012956 0.023673 0.043549 0.079226 0.149014
2025-10-19 0.003846 0.007150 0.013040 0.024386 0.045938 0.085564 0.165036
2025-10-26 0.003583 0.006805 0.012673 0.024225 0.046672 0.088896 0.175611
2025-11-02 0.003365 0.006523 0.012395 0.024205 0.047662 0.092774 0.187578
2025-11-09 0.003115 0.006159 0.011931 0.023778 0.047812 0.095027 0.196468
2025-11-16 0.002972 0.005992 0.011832 0.024062 0.049394 0.100217 0.211830
2025-11-23 0.002789 0.005730 0.011523 0.023891 0.050029 0.103539 0.223557
2025-11-30 0.002698 0.005646 0.011564 0.024442 0.052206 0.110198 0.243031
2025-12-07 0.002479 0.005278 0.010994 0.023661 0.051481 0.110697 0.249029
2025-12-14 0.002324 0.005033 0.010662 0.023358 0.051761 0.113353 0.260067